TWW Thursday
Jan 29, 2015 16:29:06 GMT -5
Post by shadesofgold on Jan 29, 2015 16:29:06 GMT -5
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According to this study.
"Most of the pregnancies occur in the first six cycles with intercourse in the fertile phase (80%). After that, serious subfertility must be assumed in every second couple (10%) although—after 12 unsuccessful cycles—untreated live birth rates among them will reach nearly 55% in the next 36 months. Thereafter (48 months), ∼5% of the couples are definitive infertile with a nearly zero chance of becoming spontaneously pregnant in the future."
The same article walks through several studies and ultimately argues that regardless of age, women should seek infertility testing after six months. Of course, many of these studies are paid for by those with a vested interest in fertility treatments (which are lucrative). Still, while we take the year rule as gospel, it is actually contested. Here are more segments from that paper:
"Wang et al. (2003) prospectively observed 518 newly married Chinese textile workers (20–34 years of age) trying to conceive. They recorded vaginal bleeding, sexual intercourse and collected daily first-morning urine specimens for up to 1 year or until a clinical pregnancy was achieved. Survival curves (Kaplan and Meier, 1958) were calculated for proportion of conceptions over number of menstrual cycles. In their cohort of women, ∼50% became clinically pregnant in the first two cycles and >90% in the first six cycles. They found that the monthly fecundity varied between 30 and 35%.
In this journal we reported on 346 women using natural family planning methods to conceive (Gnoth et al., 2003). They were observed from their first cycle of trying to conceive onwards. Only cycles with intercourse in the fertile phase were included. Pregnancy was assessed by either ultrasound, positive pregnancy test or a luteal phase >18 days. In both latter cases, only later-confirmed clinical pregnancies (live birth, ectopic implantation or clinical abortion) were included in the analyses. Kaplan–Meier survival analyses (cumulative probabilities of conception, CPC) were carried out for the whole group and separately for those who finally conceived (truly fertile couples). A total of 310 pregnancies occurred among 346 women in a maximum of 29 cycles of observation with a mean of 3.56 and SD of 4.03 for a total of 1208 cycles observed. Only the data of 340 out of 346 women could be included in the analysis because for six women out of those who finally conceived TTP was inaccurate because some cycles were completely missed. Estimated CPC for the total group (340 women included) at one, three, six and 12 cycle(s) were 38, 68, 81 and 92% respectively. For those who finally conceived (truly fertile couples, 304 women included), the respective pregnancy rates were 42, 75, 88 and 98%. Most couples conceived within six cycles of timed intercourse. Thereafter we have to assume slight or serious subfertility in every second couple. As expected, CPC declined with age because heterogeneity in fecundity increases. In the subgroup of truly fertile couples, CPC was statistically age independent (as judged by the Wilcoxon test) because of high homogeneity even with advancing age."
All of this is to say, that at 8 months of trying, while impatience does not equal infertility, and while I will not be seeing an RE until the 12 month mark, things are looking a little less bright and they look a little less bright every month.
You are amazing. Thank you for sharing!